Once a player’s SciSkill development is lower than the Potential algorithm had anticipated, the player's Potential drops. Similarly, the Potential increases once a player’s SciSkill development is higher than expected.
For example: the Potential algorithm expects a development of 5 SciSkill points while the player only achieves an increase of 3 SciSkill points, resulting in the Potential of the player to drop.
Both SciSkill and Potential are re-computed after each match. The more data we take into account (i.e. the more matches a player has played), the more accurate the Potential will be. Fluctuations of Potential are thus due to the fact that we are able to make a better prediction as more data becomes available.